LOCKDOWN UNEMPLOYMENT, NOT COVID-19, IS THE NEW BLACK PLAGUE AND FAMINE FOR AMERICANS

In re-reading "Hiring the Worker," a seminal book on management and human resources history published in 1916, just prior to the Spanish Flu outbreak in 1918, I came across the following passage that has tremendous implications for the way our various governments (city, county, state and federal) have reacted to the Covid-19 pandemic:

"What famine and black plague were to the middle ages, so is unemployment to the modern industrial world."

The statement was made in a report by Professor Joseph Willits. The professor had been commissioned by the City of Philadelphia to do a year-long study of workplace turnover and unemployment in Philadelphia's burgeoning manufacturing industries. Because so much work was seasonal, turnover was extremely high, especially during the winter. As a result, workers suffered greatly. This high workforce turnover and its accompanying social disruption was common in many American cities of the time. Arguably, by many accounts it was the biggest social crisis in the country during that period in our nation's history.

If you have not by now made the connections between 1916 Philadelphia and the entire country in 2020, allow me to spell it out for you: 

"LOCKDOWN UNEMPLOYMENT, NOT COVID-19, IS THE NEW BLACK PLAGUE AND FAMINE FOR AMERICANS"

The effects of massive unemployment, both temporary and prolonged, in 1916 were many and terrible. They bear repeating here in their fullness because we can see the same effects caused by the lockdowns in 2020. And let me re-emphasize here that it is the lockdowns--the responses to Covid-19--and not the coronavirus itself that are the root of our current social evils. In 1916, the evils of turnover and unemployment were:

(bold is my commentary / comparison to 2020)

• A serious reduction of the wage scale. . . Unless actual figures covering a long period of time are brought to the attention of those whose business it is to adjust wage schedules, numerous maladjustments are certain to occur even with a well-intentioned management. Because the opportunity to use his full energies is not afforded, the man whose income ought to be $1 000 to $1 200 really draws only $500 to $1 000 per year. (In 2020, on-again, off-again lockdowns seriously diminish the annual wages of all affected by them. Our incomes are not what they were supposed to be. Employers cannot, or will not, adjust our wages accordingly, and subsidies and unemployment don't come close to making up the differences in our expected and actual wages.)
• Thrift is not encouraged because incomes are irregular and it becomes impossible for the family to plan its expenditures wisely. (Our 401k accounts are shot, and people are no longer contributing to their own accounts because they need cash now. Retirement planning has been put on hold.  Savings accounts have been depleted and wiped out)
• The efficiency of workers is decreased due to irregular habits. A tendency to avoid anything like a steady job becomes manifest. (If you think work-from-home is more efficient than working in the office, then I have an office building I would like to sell you. Workforce efficiency and productivity have been shot-to-hell by the lockdowns. Many people, especially young, single workers, are settling for temporary jobs and gig work.)
• (People) are forced to take anything that offers during dull periods. Workers for this reason grow hopeless and tend to drift into poorer classes of employment instead of seeking advancement. ('Nuff said for 2020 lockdowns. Many are hopeless, drifting, and not advancing)
• Social standards are lowered. A series of interviews with Kensington textile workers is one steady story of used up savings, of increased debts, and of ‘half time’ for four, six or nine months.'' (Sound familiar in 2020? Not that our social standards were particularly high prior to the lockdowns, so not that far to sink into an even worse social quagmire.)
• Families are forced to break up, crime increases, attendance in the public schools falls off seriously (Ditto, Ditto, Ditto in 2020).
• Health is impaired. Parents are unable to furnish food, fuel and clothing during the severest winter weather. (Alcohol and drug use have risen. Suicide rates are growing. Food banks are running short. Bailout money / subsidies cannot put enough food on the table, pay the rent and keep the heat and lights on. Only high levels of employment can do those things)

The book and the study go on to highlight the difficulties caused by turnover and unemployment for employers. I offer no comparisons here because they are unmistakably the same in 2020. But feel free to draw your own comparisons between problems caused by high unemployment as a result of rampant turnover in 1916 to problems caused by high unemployment as a result of lockdowns in 2020.

1. Reduced output caused by: 

• Running at less than capacity.
• Demoralization of the organization.
• Reduced efficiency due to degeneration of the workers in spirit, energy and ambition.
• Lowered efficiency of employees who are laid off for some time. It may take from one to three weeks for a worker to get back to normal efficiency.
• Machines turn out less than the standard amount when operated by unskilled hands.
• Added wear and tear on equipment due to changing operatives.
• Cost of excess plant required because of failure to operate continuously at full capacity.
• Increased amount of imperfect work and greater cost of materials due to inexperienced employees.

2. Expense of Securing and Training New Employees

• Clerical work, time of those engaged in selecting employees, advertising, overhead charges of employment work.
• Instruction.

3. Inability to Reduce Overhead Charges, Supervisory Force, Instructors, Etc. to a Minimum 

4. Effect on General Markets. 

When unemployment is widespread, many firms are likely to suffer because of the reduced purchasing power of the community and the general feeling of a lack of confidence in financial security.) 

Politicians in 2020, unlike most of their counterparts in 1916, almost universally have no private-sector business experience, which probably accounts not only for their cluelessness, but for their callous dismissal of the detrimental effects of their lockdowns on the working classes. For our part, as wage earners and employers we need to quit tip-toeing around and kowtowing to the politicians. We need to make it clear: we need JOBS, not demeaning and pitifully-low subsidies and unemployment handouts. We need to go back to work. And we need to run our businesses like businesses. No more lockdowns and no more WFH. Let's act like responsible adults, suck it up, and get back to the old normal. The childish lockdowns and "new normal" are diminishing our health and our families, and in many cases are killing us. I think most of us prefer to take our chances with the coronavirus.